Another hit that short-downs the Green Bay Packers team,as they have just dismissed one of their most valuable players due to…
The Green Bay Packers now have to face the reality that, in terms of their chances of winning the Super Bowl, their season has been a complete bust following an embarrassing loss to a diminished New York Giants squad. It’s not the end of the world with a 3-2 record. Tex and Justis mentioned in the RePack post-game podcast that 3-2 wasn’t all that surprising considering their road games against Minnesota and Tampa Bay. However, the situation and the performances are what are problematic, not the record.
This article is probably not for you if you believe that wins and losses are the only things that count. It’s not like the season is over; the Packers are 3-2 and currently hold the seventh seed in the NFC. You won’t find any cause for hope here if that’s what you’re looking for. This is not the place to look if you’re looking for something to make you feel better. It’s true that the Packers could break out of their current slump and play better, and maybe in retrospect this article will look silly.
Let’s start by admitting that the Packers have had an easy schedule thus far. Even though Football Outsiders ranks their schedule as the 11th easiest, that still somewhat understates their difficulty. Yes, the Packers faced Tampa Bay, but they faced a team without an offensive line and without any of its wide receivers. They only had a third-string quarterback when they played New England. They were missing wide receivers, had enough injuries to fill the inactives report, and had an injured Daniel Jones when they took on the New York Giants. This year, the teams the Packers have faced have generally not been very good, and the few occasions that Green Bay has faced three of the five were extremely favorable.
Currently, one of the biggest worries for Green Bay is that their MVP quarterback isn’t performing like an MVP. In order for the Packers formula to work, one or both of the following conditions had to be met: Davante Adams’s departure might not be felt if Aaron Rodgers managed the offense with extreme structure and/or if the defense improved to become a superior force. The first part hasn’t started off well, but I will talk about the second part later. Rodgers’ EPA-per-dropback ranking of 16th is comparable to his late McCarthy era slump of 2015–2018 (with the exception of an eight-week run at the end of 2016). With an average depth of target of 6.3 yards, Rodgers has surpassed the league average, but he still leads the league in the percentage of his attempts that go behind the line of scrimmage (26.2%). Justin Fields comes in next closest starter at 21.6%. The success rate of these passes has been very low; Rodgers ranks 19th in yards per attempt.
And even though Rodgers’ efficiency on these mostly RPO/designed passes is modest, the real issue arises when he attempts a throw downfield. Rodgers is ranked 26th in yards per attempt and 23rd in adjusted completion percentage (which counts drops as completions). Although not every deep ball that is incomplete is a poor throw, it is a serious concern that Green Bay is unable to seriously threaten opponents down the field. Christian Watson, the player they traded two second round selections for to fill that position, is currently enduring his third lower body injury of the year in addition to his second hamstring strain. Except for Watson, the Packers don’t have any players with the kind of speed that can really hurt opponents downfield; nobody whose speed can change coverages and make life easier for others.
The intermediate routes are the most effective place to target in football, and that is where Green Bay does its best targeting. When aiming for 10–20 yards downfield, Rodgers leads the league in yards per attempt, but he is last in terms of the percentage of attempts made in this area of the field. However, as I’ve previously discussed, Rodgers has been hesitant to focus on this area of the field throughout his career. For years, Rodgers has been reluctant to regularly target the location where Green Bay has been successful. With the loss of Davante Adams hurting especially badly on throws close to the sideline, it is difficult to see the passing game becoming more effective if this does not change.
Rodgers is being outperformed by more than just efficiency statistics, though. Rodgers is ranked 12th this year by PFF, which remained comparatively high on his process even in the late McCarthy years.
As it stands now, the Packers passing attack is ineffective. If you can’t also threaten the defense downfield, it’s not realistic to base your offense solely on throws made behind the line of scrimmage. Furthermore, if Rodgers doesn’t target the middle of the field more frequently, Green Bay might find themselves shorthanded when it comes to effective passing.
The offensive line, which has shown erratic play in the passing game, is another reason for concern. Right tackle Elgton Jenkins doesn’t appear to be in a position to play right now. Despite Jenkins’ 75th-ranking PFF pass blocking grade, the Packers still use him in that role. Although Jenkins has excelled as a run blocker, he has struggled when he has to work in space against edge rushers. Green Bay has been hesitant to play him inside at guard, even though doing so would help them solve this issue. This may be due in part to Yosh Nijman, their ideal right tackle, who is currently playing infrequently alongside David Bakhtiari, whose first injury occurred nearly twenty-two months ago. Royce Newman has also been struggling. Though it’s difficult to feel optimistic about the tackle situation given how things have gone so far, perhaps Green Bay can move Nijman to right tackle and kick Elgton into guard if Bakhtiari can handle full game loads. The Packers are extremely fortunate that Aaron Jones, at the age of 27, is having a career year offensively; otherwise, they very well may be staring at 1-4 due to offensive difficulties.
