Unfortunately, the head coach of  76ers officially decided to terminate his contract due to…

Unfortunately, the head coach of the 76ers officially decided to terminate his contract due to…

About two weeks remain until the NBA trade deadline on February 8 and it remains to be seen what the Sixers will ultimately decide to do. The Sixers have already withdrawn their interest in Pascal Siakam and OG Anunoby, and their interest in Zach LaVine is, at best, mild.

Will they try to acquire Dejounte Murray or Lauri Markkanen through trade? Will they instead concentrate on supporting actors such as Dorian Finney-Smith and Bogdan Bogdanovic? Or will they hold onto their secrets until the offseason, when they can generate over $55 million in cap space?

Something they ought not to do? Seek a player with a max contract unless Tyrese Maxey and Joel Embiid are a picture-perfect match.

Part of the goal of the NBA’s new collective bargaining agreement was to render superteams unfeasible in the long run. It brought in harsh roster-building limitations for teams that overstepped the luxury tax threshold, as well as a second salary-cap apron that is currently set at $17.5 million.

Teams over the second apron will no longer be able to use the mid-level exception, aggregate contracts in trades, trade a seven-year-old first-round pick, or acquire contracts through the signing and trade of their own free agents elsewhere as of July 1.

These limitations might not stop a team like the Oklahoma City Thunder from building around three max players because they have an abundance of future draft capital. Even though it’s difficult for them to acquire impact players through trade or free agency, they have enough draft picks to keep adding to their supporting cast.

But the Thunder are not the Sixers. They may not own a second-round pick until 2029, having already traded away two potential first-round picks. They will probably own first-round picks in 2024, 2026, 2028, and beyond, but if they’re constructing their roster around three stars on maximum contracts, it will be very difficult for them to maintain a rotation capable of winning a championship.

Let’s illustrate why using Siakam.

Siakam will be qualified for a max contract that begins at thirty percent of the cap for the following year because he has eight years of NBA experience. His maximum contract would begin at $42.6 million based on the current salary-cap estimate for the 2024–25 season, which is $142 million.

Embiid is expected to make $51.4 million in 2024–25 during the first season of his four-year, $213.3 million maximum extension. Before accounting for any other players, his and Siakam’s salaries alone would come to about $94 million, leaving the Sixers less than $48 million below the cap.

This offseason, Maxey is expected to sign a max deal of his own. If he doesn’t make an All-NBA team, he’ll get a quarter of the next year’s salary cap ($35.5 million); if he does, he could get a third of the cap ($42.6 million). In any case, the Sixers will hold his pitiful $13.0 million cap hold until they take care of the remainder of their free-agent business.

Assume that Maxey signs a 25 percent max contract this offseason despite not making the All-NBA team. The combined income for Maxey, Embiid, Siakam, Paul Reed ($7.7 million), and Jaden Springer ($4.0 million) for the upcoming season would be $141.3 million. Once more, the cap is expected to be $142 million.

Let’s take a quick look at why it would be challenging for them to maintain a supporting cast worthy of a championship, even if they were to acquire Siakam or a third max player through free agency or trade.

The path of trade
Assume that the Sixers send all three first-round picks and Tobias Harris to a star player that they re-sign this offseason for a maximum salary of thirty percent. After accounting for Maxey’s extension, that essentially puts them at the cap, but they can use Bird rights to resign their own free agents.

Melton, Marcus Morris, Nicolas Batum, Robert Covington, and Furkan Korkmaz (lol) are all under the Sixers’ complete bird rights, which allow them to re-sign any of them to a contract that pays as much as possible—even if it exceeds the cap. Due to their ownership of Kelly Oubre Jr.’s and Patrick Beverley’s non-Bird rights, they are only able to offer 120 percent of what each player made this season. Danuel House Jr.’s Early Bird rights allow them to offer him a starting salary of approximately $13 million.

The Sixers’ ability to sign any of those players this offseason is governed solely by those regulations. However, unless they want to deal with the new CBA’s avalanche of trade restrictions, they also need to be aware of the second apron.

The second apron currently projects to land at $190.8 million based on the $142 million cap projection for the upcoming season. If the Sixers signed ten players to minimum deals, they would be less than $30 million below the second apron. A minimum salary is projected to be approximately $2.1 million next year. Re-signing Melton for anything close to his market value, which is probably between $15 and $20 million annually, would get them close to the second apron on its own.

The Sixers would be in a better position to maintain their bench depth with a three-star model while staying under the second apron if they were to re-sign any of Morris, Covington, Batum, or Oubre on minimum or near-minimum deals. But the Sixers would be in serious financial trouble very quickly if any of them demanded eight-figure contracts.

The more serious problem will arise if any or all of them depart. Last summer, Batum’s wife made hints that this would be his final season. Although Batum and Oubre are far bigger wild cards this summer, the Sixers can hope that Morris’ return to Philadelphia and Covington’s return to his Process home will persuade them to re-sign on cheap deals.

The Sixers will not be able to use their taxpayer mid-level exception to grant a free agent if Batum and/or Oubre depart and they are over the second round. They will only be able to offer minimal contracts. The volume approach that the Phoenix Suns took in the first few hours of free agency this past offseason hasn’t paid off yet, but maybe they can find another Oubre-like steal on a minimum deal.

Despite their lack of depth, the Sixers may prevail in the playoffs due to their elite talent. But it would be difficult to fill out their supporting cast from 4–15 every year.

The path of free agents
Alternatively, suppose the Sixers decide to hold out until the trade deadline in order to award a 30 percent max contract to a free agent. In that case, they would primarily have two options.

They would have more than $56 million in cap space this summer if they traded away their 2024 first-round pick and waived their rights to every free agent not named Tyrese Maxey. With the $8.1 million room mid-level exception, they could sign a player to a 30 percent max and still have about $15 million in cap space available. But after that, they would only be able to offer minimal contracts.

Alternatively, they could leave Melton’s $15.2 million cap hold in place and still have almost enough room to offer a full 30-percent max contract. According to current projections, they would be less than $200,000. They would also have access to the $8.1 million room MLE, but their options would be restricted to minimum contracts above that amount as well.

Remember what the Sixers would forfeit in either case. The Sixers were unable to use Bird rights to re-sign Maxey and maybe Melton after they had renounced all of their free agents and went over the cap. They run the risk of losing Harris, Batum, Oubre, Morris, Covington, and Beverley unless they can sign some of their free agents to minimum contracts or manage to keep someone via the room MLE.

The Sixers have other options for using their cap space this offseason besides free agency. They could use a portion of that space to help with a salary-dump or on a trade with an uneven salary structure. In that case, they probably won’t be able to sign a third player on a max contract.

The other route
The Sixers should target a third star who is currently on a below-max contract rather than trying to sign a player on a max deal.

One such player would be guard Dejounte Murray of the Atlanta Hawks, who has been mentioned in trade rumors in recent weeks. Murray and the Hawks inked a four-year, $114.1 million contract in July, but it doesn’t even start until the following year. He has a contract that runs at least through 2026–2027, and in each of those years, it’s anticipated that he will use less than 18% of the cap.

Murray is attractive financially, but the Sixers don’t seem to be all that interested in him. The Sixers have “started pushing back on the possibility of trading” for Murray, according to Kyle Neubeck of PHLY Sports, because the Hawks’ asking price for him “is still high” and he isn’t a “plug-and-play fit for the Sixers, either.” (Kevin O’Connor of The Ringer stated that the Hawks are interested in Murray for two first-round selections; Michael Scotto of HoopsHype clarified that they aren’t planning on “taking back salary beyond this season.”)

More than anyone else, Mikal Bridges is the player for whom the Sixers should empty their trade clip, but there has been no indication that the Brooklyn Nets will consider moving him by the trade deadline. He will only make $23.3 million in 2024–25 and $24.9 million in 2025–26 during the second year of a four-year, $90.9 million contract. In terms of skill set, he would also be a perfect fit next to Embiid and Maxey, unlike Murray.

For many Sixers supporters, Markkanen is another ideal trade target, and financially (at least for the time being) he would fit the same mold. Even though Markkanen will be a free agent in 2025, he is only making $17.3 million this season and $18.0 million in 2024–2025. Thus, the Sixers would only be able to benefit from his below-market contract for a maximum of 1.5 seasons.

Markkanen may not even remain in said arrangement for very long. He is a clear candidate to renegotiate his contract this summer because his current team can only offer him 140 percent of his 2024–25 salary as the starting salary of an extension. The Indiana Pacers did the same thing with Myles Turner in January of last year, and the Sacramento Kings did the same with Domantas Sabonis this past offseason. Although the Sixers might do the same if they made a trade for him, by 2025 he’s probably going to be signed to a max or near-max deal.

The wild card here is San Antonio Spurs forward Keldon Johnson. His salary will decrease from $20 million this season to $19 million the following year and $17.5 million in both the 2025–2026 and 2026–2027 seasons. He is currently in the first year of a four-year, $74 million contract. Although Johnson isn’t as good as Bridges or Markkanen, he did average 22.0 points per game on 45.2 percent shooting the previous season. He could fill in as a reliable swing player between Maxey and Embiid in the long run.

Supporters may opt to pursue a more well-known celebrity like LaVine. However, it would get harder for the Sixers to maintain a championship-caliber supporting cast around Embiid, Maxey, and their third star once the dopamine rush from that Woj bomb wears off and the reality of building a roster around a three-max core sets in.

Although the two-max-and-depth strategy may not garner as much attention, it is the best course of action for a Sixers team that is already short on draft picks in the future.