Good News: Potential Colts player Michael Pittman Jr.’s contract has been extended, and his pay has increased to…
Star wide receiver Michael Pittman Jr. is scheduled to become a free agent in a few months, so the Indianapolis Colts will have to make a significant decision.
Pittman has developed into the top receiving option for the Colts since being selected in the second round of the 2020 NFL Draft. The former Trojan from USC has maintained his productive streak despite quarterback instability. In four seasons, Pittman has caught passes from seven different quarterbacks.
Pittman has 336 catches for 3,662 yards and 15 touchdowns in his career. Pittman, who recorded 109 catches for 1,152 yards and four touchdowns in 2023, is also coming off a career year. Pittman’s opportunity to perform at his peak was ideal because he was about to sign a new contract.
Pittman’s contract expires in March, but the Colts have made it clear that they would like to sign him to a long-term extension. Pittman would also like to rejoin the team that selected him in the fourth round four years prior. What will it take to keep Pittman in Indianapolis for the foreseeable future is the question.
To help forecast the specifics of a possible extension, let’s examine how the Colts have handled wide receiver signings in recent years and what players comparable to Pittman’s caliber have signed for.
The Broad Receiver History of Ballard
Chris Ballard, general manager of the Indianapolis Colts, addresses the media on Thursday, January 11, 2024 at the Colts Complex’s Indiana Farm Bureau Football Center.
© Kelly Wilkinson/USA TODAY NETWORK/IndyStar
Paying wide receivers has been a cautious strategy for Chris Ballard, the Colts’ general manager since 2017. Ballard has concentrated on brief transactions that offer a low-risk, high-reward scenario. The outcome has not been particularly impressive.
The contracts that Ballard has offered wide receivers during his seven offseasons as the Colts’ head coach are listed below:
Isaiah McKenzie (2023): $1.23 million, one-year contract
Ashton Dulin (2023): $7.2 million, two-year contract
T.Y. Hilton (2021): An $8 million, one-year agreement
Zach Pascal (2021): $3.38 million, one-year agreement
Devin Funchess (2019): $10 million, one-year contract
Ryan Grant (2018): A $5 million, one-year agreement
Kamar Aiken (2017): $2.6 million, one-year agreement
Following their contract signings, none of these wide receivers achieved high levels of production. Hilton and Pascal had the best games in 2021, totaling over 300 yards and three touchdowns apiece.
However, Pittman’s situation is completely different from this one. As the top receiving option for the Colts, Pittman is about to enter his prime. He will remain the center of the Colts’ passing attack if he comes back.
Nor should the lesser value of the deals Ballard gave wide receivers be cause for concern. When it comes to re-signing his best players, Ballard has shown no qualms about paying top dollar. The first names that spring to mind are Grover Stewart, Braden Smith, Quenton Nelson, and Jonathan Taylor.
Pittman will probably experience the same thing. During his press conference to end the season, Ballard stated that he wanted to keep the WR1 in Indianapolis.
Ballard stated of Pittman, “I care deeply about him.” We get along really well with one another. It’s an honest one, sometimes I think almost too honest. However, I adore that about him. The man is a fierce competitor. He is resilient. He is considerate. His goal is to triumph. We will endeavor to retrieve him. We will resolve that… We think Pitt plays good football, and we hope he sticks with the Colts.
If it benefits both sides, the Colts are willing to offer Pittman a significant contract in order to retain him over the long run. During talks, the parties will be assisted in finding common ground by other contracts throughout the league.
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Players Similar to Pittman
Dec. 17, 2023, Inglewood, California, USA: In the second half of the Washington Commanders’ game against the Los Angeles Rams at SoFi Stadium, wide receiver Terry McLaurin (17) catches a pass. All Rights Reserved. Credit Required: Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports © Gary A. Vasquez~
Teams and agents use other contracts in the league to help set the market for a possible deal once negotiations get underway. The wide receiver’s new contract will be negotiated similarly by Pittman’s agent, David Mulugheta of Athletes First.
Looking at wide receivers who are comparable to Pittman in terms of production, value to their team, and recent contract signings will give you a better idea of where his next deal might land. A.J. Brown of the Philadelphia Eagles, DK Metcalf of the Seattle Seahawks, Terry McLaurin of the Washington Commanders, and DJ Moore of the Chicago Bears are the players who most closely resemble Pittman.
These four wide receivers have all produced at the level of an NFL WR1, and they are each the main target for their respective teams. They all signed long-term extensions in the 2022 offseason, so they are a good representation of the wide receiver class.
Here are each receiver’s overall statistics for the two seasons (2020–2021) prior to signing their extension, so you can compare their output to Pittman’s:
Brown: 1,944 yards, 16 touchdowns, and 133 catches in 27 games.
Metcalf: 2,270 yards, 22 touchdowns, 158 catches in 33 games
McLaurin: 2,171 yards, nine touchdowns, and 164 catches in 32 games
Moore (32 games): 2,350 yards, 8 touchdowns, 159 catches
The averages for these categories are 14 touchdowns, 2,184 yards, 154 catches, and 31 games. Pittman has amassed 32 games, 208 catches, 2,077 yards, and eight touchdowns over the previous two seasons. Pittman leads the team in catches by a significant margin, but he is tied for fifth in touchdowns and fourth in yards.
Here are the extensions that each wide receiver received prior to the 2022 season, along with their average annual value (AAV), after examining how they compare in terms of production:
Brown: $100 million over four years ($25 million AAV)
Metcalf: $72 million, three-year contract ($24 million AAV)
McLaurin: $68.36 million over three years ($22.79 million AAV)
Moore: $61.88 million, three-year contract ($20.63 million AAV)
These four have previously received extensions, so the Colts and Pittman’s team have a starting point for talks. It’s likely that both parties will assert that their position will drive the price higher, but in Ballard’s words, “The market is what the market is.”
Big Payday is scheduled for October 29, 2023, in Indianapolis, Indiana, USA. At Lucas Oil Stadium, during the first half of the Colts’ game against the New Orleans Saints, wide receiver Michael Pittman Jr. (11) celebrates. Required Credit: USA TODAY Sports/Marc Lebryk © Marc Lebryk-USA TODAY Sports
Pittman is expected to earn a respectable salary this spring thanks to his consistent output over the previous few seasons and the expansion of the wide receiver market. Although Pittman is willing to explore his options as a free agent, it would be surprising to see the wide receiver in a different uniform come next season given how crucial he is to the Colts and Ballard’s desire to keep him around.
A three-year, $70 million contract ($23.33 million AAV) for Pittman would be a reasonable contract extension after considering similar players in the league and their deals. With the extension, Pittman would become the eighth-highest paid wide receiver in terms of average annual value (AAV) and hold the record for the biggest wide receiver contract in Colts franchise history.
In addition, Pittman would be able to reenter the free agent market at age 29 thanks to the three-year contract. If he keeps getting better and puts up numbers with quarterback Anthony Richardson, he might be able to cash in on another big-money deal before he turns thirty. He would also follow in Taylor’s footsteps with the three-year contract, as the two inked a three-year, $42 million extension in October.
The Colts are building around their young quarterback; they cannot afford to lose their best wide receiver. Both on and off the field, Pittman has been a huge asset to this team, and the Colts think he can get even better. The contract extension will be well worth the money if Pittman and Richardson can work together to help Indianapolis win football in the future.
