Day 7/29 Look: Fade Pivetta versus the M’s

On Friday, Kyle Hendricks just about made it under his outs prop to cash our last Look of the Day for the previous week. Let’s continue the winning streak into the upcoming week with our top MLB wager for Monday’s schedule.

Look of the Day: Nick Pivetta against the Red Sox at 7:10 p.m. ET, with over 2.5 earned runs allowed (+120 DraftKings).

On Monday night at Fenway Park, the Seattle Mariners will play the Boston Red Sox. Pivetta will be making his third start since the All-Star break, so we plan to fade him.

Pivetta has spent the last two months as a boom-or-bust starter. In his last eight outings, the right-hander has pitched two shutouts, but in the other six, he has given up at least three earned runs. In his last start against the Colorado Rockies, Pivetta allowed a season-high 10 hits and seven earned runs; the Mariners will be a much tougher opponent.

On offense, Seattle is beginning to settle into a groove. For the past five days, the Mariners are batting.271 versus right-handed pitchers with a.404 wOBA. In that time, they are leading the MLB in walk rate (13.5%), third in OPS (.942), and second in wRC+ (167) versus righties.

Given that the Mariners’ current bats are batting, Pivetta has also had difficulty against this lineup in the past.322 against him in 70 plate appearances, with a.433 xwOBA, a.647 xSLG, and a 14.3% walk rate. Given their recent struggles with their bullpen, the Red Sox will give Pivetta a lot of leash in this game, improving Pivetta’s chances of winning.