Following a thrilling victory, the New Jersey Devils sadly announce the serious injury of a key player.
For a while, it seemed the Calder Trophy was Connor Bedard’s to lose. However, the race became somewhat more open after he missed the next six to eight weeks of action due to a broken jaw he sustained in a game against the New Jersey Devils on January 5.
Given that Bedard will be sidelined for some time, other rookies will have the opportunity to compete for the Calder Trophy. Although Brock Faber is currently the front-runner to win it, there are other rookies who could make a stronger case for themselves in the Calder Cup. Let’s examine whose chances have improved dramatically recently.
Faber & Hughes Could Lead the Way
Faber’s early career has received a lot of attention, and rightfully so. In certain games, he has played for 25–30 minutes, but not all of that time has been on the ice. 39.1% of his minutes have been against the middle of the lineup, and just over 40% have been against elite opposition.
This indicates that Faber frequently faces the best nines and lines on teams. The outcomes also provide a clear voice. He is delivering positive value to the Minnesota Wild with an expected goals above replacement (xGAR) of 2.4 thanks to his even-strength defense.
In addition to adding value, Faber’s presence on the ice has made the Wild a much stronger team than his absence. During his five-on-five minutes, the Wild allow just 2.13 expected goals per 60 minutes, making him one of their best shot suppressors.
With Bedard out, Faber might end up leading the pack, but there are other young defensemen who can win the award. Luke Hughes, a defenseman for the New Jersey Devils, has started his NHL career living up to the hype. With 23 points in 39 games, he is on track to end the season with 48 points.
In terms of offensive output, the younger Hughes brother has marginally outperformed Faber. Faber has played significantly more difficult minutes than the other defenseman, despite the fact that his defensive contributions have also been strong. Hughes’ ice time against top competition has been limited to just 27%.
With Dougie Hamilton and Jonas Siegenthaler out of the lineup for an extended period of time, that number will probably rise. However, I still don’t think it will catch up to Faber. Faber has received a lot of attention on social media when he plays for more than 25 minutes every night. That doesn’t mean he will automatically win the trophy, but it does mean that those who cast their votes for him are paying close attention to him.
Among Others Who Can Make a Push Are Mintyukov and Fantilli.
Young defensemen other than Hughes and Faber have a chance to win the Calder Trophy. Despite slowing down after his explosive start with the Anaheim Ducks, Pavel Mintyukov is still on track to score roughly 40 points this year. He has demonstrated strong offensive play and seems destined to be one of the Ducks’ top pairing defensemen in the future.
Nemec, a young blueliner who has also performed well, is Hughes’ teammate. Not yet in his career, anyway, does he have the scoring upside of Hughes or even Mintyukov. However, he’s behaved admirably for a 19-year-old defenseman who, but for Hamilton’s injury, wouldn’t even be in the NHL.
Nemec ought to be included in the Calder conversation, based on his JFresh player card. In Hamilton’s absence, he has performed admirably all around and taken on challenging minutes. One could even argue that he is the best rookie defenseman for the Devils:
For the Calder, there are typically a lot of forwards in the mix. Right now, Marco Rossi may have the best opportunity to talk to Calder. He has performed well in five-on-five, averaging 2.27 points per sixty minutes, and is on pace to score 24 goals and 49 points. He is currently the Wild’s most effective five-on-five scorer.
After a sluggish start with the Columbus Blue Jackets, Adam Fantilli has improved. Currently, he is on track to score 46 points and score 21 goals after scoring 12 points in his previous 15 games. He has work to do, but even if he plays the same way he has for the past month, don’t write him off.
With Bedard out, the leading forward candidates for the Calder are Rossi and Fantilli, but Connor Zary should not be overlooked. With 21 points in 32 games this season, he is on pace to finish with 20 goals and 47 points in 72 games, making him one of the Calgary Flames’ best forwards.
In five-on-five, Zary has the fourth-best expected goals share (xG%) among Flames players at 53.88. Right now, I don’t think he will win the Calder. At the end of the season, he might receive the same number of votes as Fantilli and Rossi, though.
